When it comes to sports betting, football is the undisputed king. Baseball, on the other hand, is probably the sweet, under-the-radar, value prince. But it is one of the best sports that you can wager on as bettors only have to pick who wins and not who covers. This is also referred to as betting the moneyline. If you are the type of person who loves to simply choose what team will win in each game, baseball is a great sport to choose.
In baseball betting, when you bet the moneyline, you can choose to take either the favorite, which is the team expected to win, or the underdog. However, you need to note that if you are betting the favorite, you are going to win less money than you wagered if your bet wins, compared to winning an underdog bet that will usually return more than you wager. Aside from that, you also have the option to bet on MLB spreads or also referred to as the run line.
Players are also given the option to bet on the over/under or total, which, as in other sports, is a bet on how many runs will be scored in the game. Another unique thing about baseball betting is its long schedule. There are many games played each day, around 2,430 regular-season games in a normal season. This means that there are endless opportunities to maximize their edge.
If you are looking into trying out betting in this sport, we are here to help you. In this post, we are giving you the top eight baseball betting tips.
1. Try to avoid betting on big favorites
Oddsmakers are aware that recreational folks in baseball betting are into taking favorites. With this, they capitalize on public bias and shade their lines accordingly. This means that popular baseball teams will always be overpriced as the average bettors will take on them even if they are -150, -180, or -200 when betting baseball.
Keep in mind that when favorites win, your payout is small. However, when they lose, you will get crushed. This means that the juice is not worth the squeeze. If you are learning how to bet on baseball and win, one of the important steps is to learn how to read the MLB odds.
2. Bet to risk and not to win
This is an important tip that can be applied across all sports, but it is essential when betting on baseball. Bet to risk means that you are betting a specific predetermined amount based on your unit size. Unlike betting to win, that means betting either a higher or lower amount based on the price of the bet.
For instance, if you want to bet on a certain team as a -125 favorite, betting to risk means that if you bet $100 on them and they win, you win your $100 back plus an additional $80 based on the -125 price. However, when you bet on the same team to win and not to risk, you would have to lay $125 on them in order to win $100. If they win, you get your $125 back and an additional $100. When the team you wagered on loses, you only lost $100 by betting to risk compared to losing $125 on betting to win.
At first, this tip may sound confusing. However, betting to risk and not to win will save you when you lose on a favorite and pad your bankroll big when you win on an underdog.
3. Bet against the public
Among the many different sports out there, baseball is one of the best ones for betting against the public. Contrarian wagerers can take advantage of public bias by focusing on the most heavily bet and most lopsided games of the day. They can pounce on exaggeratedly inflated numbers and put themselves on the side of the house. Therefore, you always need to remember that the house always wins.
4. Buy on low bad teams after winning
When a bad team wins a game in baseball, the predictable sense says you should bet against them or fade them in the next game. This is because they are bad for a reason and are bound to relapse into their losing form. However, teams in this spot are very profitable as they are so undervalued. In fact, since 2005, teams that have a win percentage of .400 or less coming off a win have won their next game 47.5% of the time, winning +159.03 units. This means that backing these teams more than the past 15 years can make a $100 bettor up to nearly $16,000.
5. Try to follow the Reverse Line Movement
The Reverse Line Movement or RLM is when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It is one of the best ways to find sharp action when betting on baseball. For instance, say the Cubs open -150 against the Brewers (+130). The Cubs are getting 75% of moneyline bets, but you notice they fall from -150 to -135, while the Brewers move from +130 to +115. The books dropped the line to give public Cubs bettors a better number as sharp action came in on the Brewers. Even though the Cubs are only getting 25% of bets, the line moved in their favor.
When you increase the RLM to 10 cents or higher, it gets even better. In fact, a $100 bettor would have gained more than $8,700 following this system since 2005.
6. Always know the weather when betting baseball
Bettors can still find value on totals in baseball betting even if the majority of bets are placed on the moneyline. One huge factor to consider before placing a total wager is the weather, particularly the wind, as it can have a huge impact on the outcome of the game. For instance, if the wind is blowing in, it can benefit the unders greatly. It’s because first-row home runs turn into warning track outs. Wind blowing out, on the other hand, is great for overs as it can turn fly balls into homers.
7. Shop for the best line
A lot of casual bettors only bet through one specific sportsbook. However, doing this will only force you to play whatever number your book is offering. Therefore, it is better to set up accounts at multiple sportsbooks to have a chance to shop for the best line. This may not sound important, but over a long season, it can make a big difference.
8. Always manage your bankroll properly
In all types of sports betting, bankroll management is very important, especially in baseball. Since the season is so long, it can be very unstable, with a wave of ups and downs along the way. With this, you should stick to flat betting or betting the same amount on every single game, no matter what your confidence level is. Aside from that, you also need to avoid betting parlays as the books make a killing off parlays. It is better to stick to individual game bets.
These are some of the best tips that we can give when it comes to baseball betting. Just like in other forms of online betting and gambling, keep in mind that it is something that you do for fun and to get a chance to win some money. However, avoid spending too much on it, or do not spend more than what you are willing to lose. We hope these tips will help you the next time you try to bet on a baseball game.